John Green has a fascinating post in which he discusses the success of THE FAULT IN OUR STARS and opens the topic up for conversation. This post has made me think about many things, among them the way we talk, in general, about the causality of a Book Becoming Really Big.
OK read this, now (I know it’s long, but I’m studying Psych…so yeah) Also when my university subjects help me understand tumblr…then I know I’m studying the right things in uni.
…How strong is the correlation between number of readers (as represented by number of ratings) and overall rating? I don’t know. You’ll have to ask Jutze. But there certainly is a correlation (and consistently, every week, TFiOS sells better than Alaska which sells better than Paper Towns which sells better than Katherines)**.
Having just sat my AS statistics exam, there was a flurry of excitement in the house as I raced around around trying to find my calculator.
I found that there is a very strong positive linear correlation (r > 0.95) between the number of ratings and the average rating.
Being a pen and paper kinda guy, my calculations are seen here:
The r value (The product moment correlation coefficient (blah, words)) is basically an indication of how well data points reflect a linear correlation, or how close they would lie to a straight line of best fit.
As stated above, we gained a very high value of 0.9634, so there is a very strong positive correlation between the number of ratings on goodreads of one of John Green’s books and the average rating.
Being a nerd (I’m guessing you’d realised), I then thought it’d be cool to calculate an estimate for this line of best fit, seen here:
We get the equation that y= 0.00332x + 3.755, where y = the average rating and x is 1000 ratings. This means that we can expect the rating to increase by 0.00332 for every thousand ratings, or by 0.3 for every 100,000 ratings.
When we substitute x = 234 thousand reviews, we get an estimate for the average review (y) of 4.53, which is practically the same as TFiOS’s 4.52, so the book is as well liked as we would estimate any of John’s books to be if they had received as many ratings.
If we substitue in the value for John’s lowest rated book (Katherines), we get an estimate for the rating of 3.95, which is slightly higher than the actual value of 3.87.
Once again stats helps me understand tumblr. That course is coming in useful. (Also this is amazing, good job :D )
I thought I’d take a minute to let you know why I think the cover design for John’s new book The Fault in our Stars is brilliant. I am almost as dismayed by the negative responses to the cover as I was impressed by the amazingly wonderful designs submitted by many of you earlier…
In light of the coverflipping discussion on tumblr:
It’s worth remembering that when I announced the cover for The Fault in Our Stars, everyone hated it.
“The design is too minimalistic and everyone does judge a book by its cover.”
“This just feels so bland and unimaginative.”
“No one likes the cover John.”
“After all the nerdfighteria designed covers on Fishingboatproceeds, this cover is hideous, so bleeh, so uninspired, I am going to paste a high quality print of one of the best fan created covers on my preordered copy. 3rd graders have done better covers in art class. In fact I ask an elementary art teacher friend of mine to get her best students on this project. TFIOS deserved a better dust jacket.”
These are comments from my announcement of the cover, which was met with such widespread disgust that I enlisted my lovely wife to defend the cover on her tumblr in hopes of quieting the storm. There are literally thousands of negative comments about the cover in the comments for that video. In six and a half years, no other vlogbrothers video has ever received such negative feedback.
Ansel Elgort offered lead in ‘The Fault in Our Stars’ opposite Shailene Woodley
Hazel has found her Gus!
Ansel Elgort has been offered the role of Augustus Waters—the male lead opposite Shailene Woodley—in the eagerly anticipated adaptation of John Green’s The Fault in Our Stars,directed by Josh Boone. Green’s beloved, best-selling book is a love story that is equal parts funny, sweet, and heartbreaking in its telling of Hazel and Gus, two teens who meet in a cancer support group. (EW had it on the Best Fiction of 2012 list)
“Ansel is whip-smart and uber-charismatic and everything I dreamed for Augustus Waters,” John Green tells EW in an exclusive statement. “I am by nature a cautious pessimist, but I’ll just say it: Now that we have Shailene and Ansel, I am completely, unreservedly psyched about this movie.”